New Zealand’s cyber threat environment is entering a new phase. The NCSC’s 2025 reporting shows a sharp rise in national-impact incidents, financially motivated attacks, and supply-chain compromises. Global trends also point to automation, AI-driven attacks, and credential-focused intrusions accelerating.

Here are Cloudtria’s predictions for the threats New Zealand businesses will face most in 2026.

1. Credential Theft Will Overtake All Other Attack Vectors

Attackers will continue targeting identity as the primary point of entry.

• Password reuse, MFA fatigue, and phishing prompts will be exploited at scale

• Compromised SaaS credentials (Microsoft 365, Xero, Google Workspace) will drive most breaches

• Third-party contractor accounts will remain a blind spot

2. Supply-Chain Compromise Will Rise as the Easiest Path Into Kiwi Organisations

Attackers will increasingly target managed service providers, hosting companies, and software vendors.

• A single supplier compromise can cascade across dozens of NZ businesses

• Smaller IT partners often lack mature detection capability

• Dependency on offshore platforms increases exposure

3. Ransomware Groups Will Shift to “Steal First, Encrypt Later”

Extortion will be data-driven.

• Data theft will occur weeks before any encryption event

• Attackers will threaten publication of intellectual property, customer data, or financial documents

• NZ’s mandatory breach notification rules will raise the stakes

4. AI-Driven Phishing Will Become Indistinguishable From Legitimate Emails

Generative AI now allows:

• Real-time impersonation of executives and suppliers

• Flawless grammar and personalised context

• Automated campaigns that adapt to user behaviour

5. Business Email Compromise (BEC) Will Escalate Into "Business Workflow Compromise"

Attackers will no longer stop at changing bank account details.
They will:

• Hijack invoice chains

• Manipulate project approvals

• Modify procurement workflows

• Interfere with payroll

6. Remote Access Exposure Will Continue to Cause Avoidable Breaches

NCSC has repeatedly warned about exposed RDP, VPNs, bastions, and cloud misconfiguration.
Expect more incidents involving:

• Publicly accessible admin interfaces

• Overly permissive firewall rules

• Weak MFA policies

7. Nation-State Reconnaissance Will Target NZ Infrastructure and Contractors

NZ’s role in international infrastructure projects and alliances makes it a strategic target.
Expect activity focused on:

• Utility networks

• Transport and roading infrastructure

• Engineering and construction partnerships

• Government suppliers

8. SME-Targeted Malware-as-a-Service Will Surge

Criminal marketplaces are rapidly democratising cybercrime.
In 2026, NZ SMEs will face:

• Cheap AI-generated phishing kits

• Prebuilt ransomware packages

• Credential-harvesting bundles

• IAB (Initial Access Broker) resale of compromised Kiwi accounts

9. Cloud Misconfiguration Will Become a Leading Breach Cause

NZ businesses continue migrating to:

• Microsoft 365

• Azure

• AWS

• Google Cloud
  Attackers will increasingly abuse:

• Public buckets

• Over-permissive identity roles

• Unmonitored service accounts

• Log retention gaps

10. Incident Response Delays Will Make Bad Situations Worse

NCSC data shows most harm occurs when businesses detect incidents late.
In 2026, organisations without the following face the highest risk:

• 24/7 monitoring

• Clear escalation procedures

• Up-to-date contact trees

• A working breach-notification plan

What NZ Businesses Should Do Now

• Prioritise identity protection (MFA, conditional access, credential hygiene).

• Introduce continuous monitoring — internal or outsourced.

• Validate your supply-chain exposure and vendor access.

• Harden cloud services and review configuration regularly.

• Maintain and test an incident response plan twice a year.